Sunday, October 28, 2007

Week 9 Rankings

I just realized something...

The fact that there are "BCS Explanation" shows and fantasy football shows really lets you know how much people are looking for answers in this life.
I think I'm going to start providing answers for a living.
Everyone's looking for answers. And Dr. Hak's got the solution...I think I'm about to be a mutha***ing BALLER!

But I digress.

I've moved 3 teams ahead of Louisiana State on my ballot. Perhaps I'm trying to reflect the true situation. Should those three BCS-conference teams remain undefeated, I can't see LSU getting the invite to the BCS title game, but instead, the Sugar Bowl a week earlier. Kansas, I am not moving up that high because...well I don't think they are that good yet. I can be convinced as usual, but I need to see some visual evidence.


You know what else? I don't like this week's rankings. I have a bunch of one-loss teams ahead of a bunch of two-loss teams that are better teams who have played tougher schedules. I'm comforted by the fact that it'll sort out by the end of the season, but still.

On to the rankings
  1. Ohio State
  2. Arizona State
  3. Boston College
  4. LSU
  5. Oregon
  6. Oklahoma
  7. Kansas
  8. West Virginia
  9. Missouri
  10. UConn
  11. Hawaii
  12. Virginia Tech
  13. Michigan
  14. Alabama
  15. Texas
  16. Georgia
  17. USC
  18. Auburn
  19. Florida
  20. South Florida
  21. South Carolina
  22. Kentucky
  23. Wake Forest
  24. Boise State
  25. Clemson

Sunday, October 21, 2007

Week 8 Rankings College Football

There are a few reasons I don't try to make predictions on football games

Reason #1 - I go with the favorite too often
Reason #2 - The times where the favorite has an obvious flaw that I'm pretty sure the underdog can exploit, I talk myself into going with the favorite far too often
Reason #3 - Random upsets like Vanderbilt 17, South Carolina 6

I guess that 3rd reason isn't really a random upset, so perhaps Reason #3b should read "I have a job and so I don't have enough time to analyze each matchup and team. If I did, I'd be able to say prophetic things like South Carolina's offense has been stuggling and Vandy's D is playing well, therefore, an upset is possible.

As we go on, I'll try to do better.

The Race For #1 (and #2, BCS-wise at least)
For some reason I thought Boston College played Va Tech this past weekend. But that game is on Thursday. That's cool, because I get to see how they do, then get to watch Ohio State against Penn State. I'm going to go out on a limb and say that they do not both win these games, so next week, we'll have a more clear cut #1...that is, until Arizona State beats Cal and then Oregon and muddles everthing up even further

So let's see where we are:

THE UNDEFEATEDS

Ohio State - 4 Big Ten games left. Toughest appear to be this week at Penn State and to end the season at Michigan. Michigan has a habit of preventing Ohio State from getting to the national title game. Last year was the exception because Michigan was also trying to go. Wolverines are haters/spoilers, not front-runners apparently

Boston College - we'll learn a ton about the Eagles when they head to Blacksburg on Thursday night on national TV. After that, they have those hard-to-figure-out ACC games. I say that because the ACC might be the conference with the most true parity. Anyone can beat anyone in any given week without raising an eyebrow. And that includes once mighty Florida State and Miami.

Kansas - I'm not convinced. They could conceivably skate through to a Big XII title game with Oklahoma and legitimize themselves...BUT, they gotta go to Texas A&M next week. Coach Fran is trying really hard not to get fired.

Hawaii - is not ranked by the computers and has not played a schedule to even really warrant BCS consideration, better yet national title thoughts

Arizona State - I probably don't give teams enough credit when I see they have a tough schedule coming up. I might even be pre-docking Arizona State points in my rankings for having to go through this for the next 4 weeks: vs Cal, at Oregon at UCLA vs USC, and then the rivalry game vs Arizona. That being said, you tell me what the odds should be of them winning all those games...I'd say 15-to-1 at best. Which could be worth it if Vegas was putting that line out there.


THE ONE-LOSS CONTENDERS

LSU - has the most quality wins and the most respect by the pollsters. They have 5 first place votes with 5 undefeated teams still out there in the AP poll. I'd rank them higher if I could..oh wait, I can...hmm...

Oregon - LSU has the #2 spot on lock if Ohio State or Boston College should fall, and so Oregon, which has an easier path remaining than Arizona State, could be trying to upgrade their Rose Bowl tickets to New Orleans if LSU should lose to Alabama or Arkansas (or Ole Miss or Louisiana Tech...I had to add those since this season has been so off-the hook).

Oklahoma - for some reason, I think Oklahoma is going to lose another game. I'm sure Bob Stoops has other ideas though.

South Florida - its a shame that West Virginia is #6 in the coaches poll and South Florida is now #12. They dropped ten spots for losing a close game to a decent Rutgers team? And now they are 6 spots behind a West Va team they BEAT? This is why the phrase "FUCK THAT SHIT" exists.

Virginia Tech - could conceivably get back in the title picture by beating Boston College convincingly. That ugly loss to LSU doesn't help though, especially when you consider it might be a rematch and the pollsters aren't fond of rematches

West Virginia - the pollsters like West Va and I like their offense but they seem to have a focus problem. They haven't played the meat of their Big East schedule (nor has Rutgers or Louisville or UConn either), so we'll see how good they really are.

UConn, Missouri and Virginia - are not likely to get the kind of poll support needed to be in the Top 5 unless they are one of the only 3 or so teams left with 1 or fewer losses by the end of the season.

And now, the Rankings

I cannot ignore quality wins against Florida, Virginia Tech, and Auburn.
However, I promise to move Boston College ahead of LSU if they beat Va Tech. Similarly, I promise to move Ohio State ahead of LSU if they beat Penn State.

1. LSU
2. Boston College
2b. Ohio State
4. Oregon
5. Oklahoma
6. Arizona State
7. Kansas
8. South Florida
9. Florida - I see some role reversal going on with LSU from last season. Difference being, LSU didn't get a rematch in the SEC title game with a chance to play spoiler last year.
10. Virginia Tech
11. West Virginia
12. Missouri
13. South Carolina
14. Kentucky
15. USC
16. Hawaii
17. Michigan
18. Alabama
19. Texas
20. Cal
21. Penn State
22. UConn
23. Virginia
24. Auburn
25. Rutgers

next - Maryland, Texas A&M

Friday, October 19, 2007

Hasta La Vista, South Florida / The Race for #1

Rutgers has done it again...

Last year they took out Louisville and their shot at the National Title (costing all of us a chance to see a true shoot-out between Brian Brohm/Bobby Petrino and Troy Smith/Anthony Gonzalez)

Apparently, South Florida's penchant for sloppy turnovers decided to catch up with them at some point - and chose last night.

This doesn't make me feel bad about ranking the Bulls #1 last week, because as a season's body of work, their wins at Auburn and vs West Virginia meaned they had earned the #1 spot. Now we're going to have a #1 next Monday who may not have earned even a TOP 10 spot in a normal season.

So expect more seemingly random fluctuation in the rankings as I continue to try to figure out who's really good and who isn't.

Since I'm now searching for a #1, let's preview this weekend's games and see who might be able to seize the top spot.

Ohio State v Michigan State - This would be the Buckeye's first decent victory of the season. Their defense is great and the offense has had 7 easy games to get their identity and some practice, so perhaps the backloading of the schedule ISN'T the worst idea in the history of sports.

Boston College @ Virginia Tech - This win would allow me to feel better about putting the Eagles at #1, even though one quality win doesn't really legitimize them. In this case, the Hokies' reputation would carry BC to the top. And yes I know I had BC at #2 last week but I consider there to be no real frontrunner at this point. I'm open to suggestions

LSU v Auburn - How weird would it be for me to put a 1-loss team at #1 with BCS teams still left undefeated? Answer: how weird has this college football season been? Bottom line is, LSU has beaten South Carolina, Florida and Virginia Tech , last week's #7, 14 and 15 picks according to Dr Hak. In truth, I think Va Tech and UF are better than a lot of the teams I have ranked ahead of them and expect them to end up closer to the Top 10 at the very end of the season. So... to me that's good enough. 4 (if they beat Auburn) quality wins would trump the one-loss deal. Weirdo sport = weirdo rankings

Kentucky v Florida - I don't really believe in Kentucky. Probably because they usually don't have a good football team (reputation), but also because they had multiple chances to put LSU away in the 4th quarter and couldn't do it. At home. Just call ONE slant pass. Take advantage of Les "Who's Perriloux?" Miles brain malfunction and get it done. Oh well. This is their last major test for a few weeks. They get by Florida, they get Mississippi State and Vanderbilt back to back, which are trap games, before the down Georgia and Tennessee programs to finish the year. You can beat LSU, but you can't beat them? Anyway, wins vs Florida and LSU could justify #1 to me.

South Carolina v Vanderbilt - not a big enough game to really qualify, especially if LSU doesn't lose. Chances for signature wins are at the end of the year.


Who I didn't mention

Oregon - win over Michigan doesn't look that special now, even though Michigan is playing better. Loss to Cal at first I wanted to forgive them for, but now I'll reserve judgment until they play some more Pac-10 games

Oklahoma - lost to Colorado. I don't care what they do unless they win out, I can't put them at #1 after that.

West Va - should've beaten South Florida

Kansas - umm... 6-0 with wins against Central Michigan, SE Louisiana, Toledo, Florida International and Baylor, plus the one victory against Kansas State will not get you a WHIFF of the #1 spot around here. They don't have any super tests because all of the teams in the Big 12 are down, but, we don't really have evidence that they are better than Oklahoma State, Nebraska, Colorado, or Texas A&M either. Missouri to end the season.

Arizona State - has a bye and then gets Cal, @ Oregon, @ UCLA and USC in a month. If for some reason they win all those games, we have a national title contender.


So, all that being said, I expect to have to put Ohio State #1 on Monday, followed by LSU and then some order of Oregon, Oklahoma and South Carolina.
...

Nowm since I said that, watch Kentucky beat Florida and BC spank Va Tech in Blacksburg or something crazy like that...

Saturday, October 13, 2007

Week 7 - College Football Gone Wild

This is getting ridiculous. Are we going to have a matchup of two-loss teams in the BCS National Championship game? Wild. Trust me, the upsets are not over. Take, the three top undefeated teams - all of them have backloaded schedules. Kansas too.
Next week alone you have South Florida @ Rutgers, and BC @ Virginia Tech. Ohio State visits Penn State after a visit from Michigan State next week.

I suppose if you like intrigue, the good news is no one with 1 or 2 losses is REALLY out of the national title picture. I mean look how drastically the Top 10 changes from week to week.

And that's BEFORE the big games later in the year. We're in an era where teams play as many powder puffs as possible to start the season, buying home games against lesser opponents to fatten the home stadium revenue coffers and get some practice that counts in the standings.

Well, its backfiring. Either with direct "upset" losses (Michigan - App State) or with not being prepared for the big games later on (Florida) . I don't know what Cal, LSU and USC's excuses are because they both played at least one big name opponent before their losses (Oregon, Florida and Nebraska respectively)

All this to say - normally this is the time of year where you'd see some jumps on the rankings because you can really evaluate what a loss to who or a win over whom actually means now that enough games have been played and overrated teams have been exposed.

Well, there's still 5 games to play this year. And most of those are the big backloaded conference matchups I mentioned earlier. So we STILL have teams that haven't played anybody, and that, more than actual talent and performance, is why I have no idea where to rank Kansas, Boston College, Texas Tech, Virginia, et al. So Whatever. At the end of the year, I hope voters recognize that early and late losses are less relevant this year and we are really going to have to take into account a teams entire body of work more than normal. Because controversy is coming with the BCS! The first one is released tomorrow...
  1. South Florida - who has BC or Ohio State beaten? South Florida has won @Auburn and vs W. Va
  2. Boston College - beat Georgia Tech
  3. Ohio State - hasn't played a decent team yet
  4. Oregon -I think their loss to Cal was a fluke, so they get benefit of the doubt
  5. Oklahoma - I think this is too high for the Sooners
  6. LSU - might still be too high for a flawed team with a coach who refuses to put in his unstoppable option package when he needs two yards...the entire game
  7. South Carolina - Defense the mark of all good Spurrier teams. Control destiny in SEC
  8. Kansas - ???
  9. Arizona State - ??? (**9b. West Virginia - oops, left them off my original rankings)
  10. Kentucky - well...I think LSU is loaded with talent but not well coached and has their best QB on the bench...so how much is a win over them REALLY worth? Is Kentucky good or not? We'll see when they play Florida next week.
  11. Cal - I dont know what to say about a team that gets to #2 and immediately tricks off their first legit shot at a title in who knows how long.
  12. Texas Tech - no idea what to do with Tech
  13. Florida - good but young and will probably lose again. But by the time the bowls come around, could probably beat whoever. Next year its on.
  14. Virginia Tech - I wonder what would've happened if they didn't get blasted by LSU
  15. USC - sucks. The media loves them so its not being put out there. John David Booty = Chris Rix
  16. Cincinnati - you lost to Louisville? You didn't put up more then 30 on Louisville???
  17. Auburn - stop tricking off "gimme" games Tuberville
  18. Hawaii - Colt Brennan is cool and all but this isn't a complete team. And his arm is going to fall off soon, so whatchagonnado then?
  19. Missouri - you know its crazy when you only drop one spot after a loss
  20. Texas
  21. Maryland
  22. Alabama
  23. Michigan - they're Back...for now
  24. Penn State
  25. Wake Forest / Virginia / Illinois / Michigan State- maybe they don't deserve to be in the Top 25. We'll see

Way Too Early Heisman Ballot

1. Hart, RB, Michigan - this is not a "homer" vote. Mike Hart is cranking out the 150 yards performances with regularity, considering all of the troubles the Maize and Blue is having.

2. I don't even know - It was Andre Woodson, but he didn't even play well against LSU. It could've been Darren McFadden, but he's not in the spotlight with Arkansas not playing well. Its not Tim Tebow. Its not Ray Rice or any of the pre-season favorites. Colt Brennan is getting fat off of weak opponents, hence Hawaii's drop on my ballot...so... no #2 this week. Give it some time

3. Matt Ryan - if we use the Best player on the Best team rationale, which i'm not really with, he's the standout amongst the current...CURRENT top teams.

And remember - Don't drink alcohol in excess, with Cialis.

Friday, October 12, 2007

Randy Couture QUITS The UFC and I Don't Blame Him

In a very preventable, very dramatic occurence, UFC Hall-of-Famer, Living Legend, and current UFC WORLD Heavyweight Champion Randy Couture has left the company and vacated his title and broadcasting position.

Its pretty easy to jump to conclusions here and blame Dana White.

Dana White, for those of you unfamiliar with the UFC, is the Vince McMahon like figure who runs the UFC for the owners, the Zuffas, with seemingly full autonomy. He's a former boxer and he loves MMA, but he's also very secretive, egotistical, emotional and never wrong. You can tell he believes this from his quotes and general demeanor that he likes the spotlight and thinks he's as important as the fights are to the success of the UFC.

And he may be.

A lot of the success and attention the UFC gets now can be attributed to Dana and his efforts, and I mean a LOT. He's the one that got the Zuffas to keep investing more money when things weren't looking right, he's the one at the forefront of getting the sport legitimized with rules and drug testing, he's the one going out and being the face of the company IN the face of tons of scrutiny from anyone who doesn't want MMA to go mainstream. He's the one who got ESPN coverage, etc etc. At least that's what you are lead to believe based on what info is out there. For that, I commend him greatly because I am a fan and if not for Dana White, I may not have been given the chance to become one.

But...

With the good comes the bad. Many of the recent failings of the UFC can also be contributed to Dana White.

The UFC deal with HBO is not happening because HBO wants to produce it. UFC wants to keep production. Why? They already produce enough TV with The Ultimate Fighter, Ultimate Fight Night, and their PPVs. Why not allow a veteran of the game like HBO to be a full partner and show you some things? I don't see the problem with that. I do see a problem with Dana going out and proclaiming in no uncertain terms that the deal would happen when it ended up NOT happening. But again, I'm not Dana White.

Fedor Emelianenko is not signing with the UFC, but instead, some upstart promotion in Russia called M-1 Mix Fight. Why? Who knows. But White going out and calling his managers "crazy Russians" probably didn't help. In Boxing, at the end of the day, people want to know who the Heavyweight Champion of the World is. Luckily, some big name fights in other weight classes have come on and kept the sport more-than-alive. In MMA, it may not be exactly the same, since the skill and other factors make the Light Heavyweight and Welterweight divisions very attractive, but the #1 Heavyweight in the World is out there and you don't sign him? How?
Fighters want to fight the best. UFC has the most talent so Fedor would naturally want to come here. He even said he's down with fighting Couture. But Dana plays hardball with him and now he goes elsewhere...Well that's dumb.

And now the #2 or 1A heavyweight around, goes and QUITS the entire organization, because you weren't giving him his money. Well, you already had this guy in the fold, so that's dumber.

The UFC has always been very interesting when it comes to fighter salaries and overall negotiations. They tell you what someone's base and win bonus are but they don't report the true amounts fighters make, which includes a lot of behind the scenes bonuses and PPV revenues.

Now, if UFC has a PPV with 500,000 buys at $40 a pop, that's $20 Million. If the fighter base salaries add up to less than $1 Million, that is a problem. These numbers are close to what happened with the Rampage - Liddell PPV. I think there were more buys than that even. And let's not forget sponsorship and live gate. So about $25 Million is made on the PPV and the fighters end up with how much exactly? What are these mysterious bonuses and who is getting them? How much are they and what are they based on? Where's the transparency?

As for the fighteres where is the financial risk/reward for putting your life on the line and getting in the cage in the first place? Its insulting to me to see a fighter listed with a base salary of $5,000 for a fight that airs on Ultimate Fight Night on Spike TV or $10,000 for a PPV. Even with these random bonuses, how are they supposed to make a real living? Who determines your fate if you don't know how much you are making?

At the end of the day, that's why Couture left. He was told he was the #2 paid fighter in UFC. But he did a survey of guys, who talk to each other, and found out that could not have been the case. Plus the new guys from Pride (Rampage, Shogun, and the offer they made Fedor) were given contracts that dwarfed his.

Dana White could've prevented this. He blames the internet fan-run "newssites" that help drive his organizations popularity for spreading rumors and lies, but that's not where the problem lies. I'm not going to say that full fighter salaries need to be disclosed to the public, but at least to the fighters, they should be honest in their dealings. Fighters can be sworn to secrecy or whatever, but they should know who is making what and how they can get to that level. If a fighter comes to you and says "you told me I was the 2nd highest paid guy but I just found 4 people who make more than me", show them your books - if he's important enough to you - and yes the World Champion and top color commentator is important enough.

But maybe in Dana's mind he isn't. Sure, the UFC will continue and Brandon Vera could return to his meteoric rise to the top and come out as UFC champion sometime next year (IF...big IF he can beat up the huge former champion in Tim Sylvia next weekend and then probably Big Nog next year) and you'd have a marketable star with the belt. That would be ok, but Randy "The Natural" Couture has something a lot of fighters just don't have yet.

Respect.

Randy is one of those guys that when he speaks, you listen. That would explain why his gym is cranking out top performances (who REALLY saw Forrest Griffin taking out Mauricio Shogun Rua last month? Be honest. Couture picked him unconditionally and Forrest made him TAP!) and why he keeps picking upset after upset and being right. That's why if Randy Couture comes out with a diet exercise and nutrition book, it'll go platinum. He has the respect of the fighters and fans. That covers everyone it seems, except perhaps Dana White, who doesn't really show a lot of respect to anyone. Like Vince McMahon. And if you didn't know, the WWE is heading DOWNwards and has been for years since they bought WCW in 2001, just like the UFC has been having these issues since they bought Pride last year...Hmm...

Sunday, October 7, 2007

Tailgaiting with Tiger Bait - Week 6 College Football Rankings

Lafayette, LA -

So I'm in a hotel on the way home from Baton Rouge, LA where I had my first tailgaiting experience and let me say, its something else. There were 90,000 people inside the stadium and about 150,000+ outside. Ticket prices were ridiculous and the Tiger faithful were OUT.

I learned a lot also... people bring their satellite dishes to tailgate...and even watch the game from outside the stadium. And they bring gasoline powered generators to power the set up. And people cook and cater real food for tailgaiting. And it starts days in advance. For people NOT going into the game. Its an amazing sight...actually is nuts but whatever. I had a good time. Geaux Tigers! What's that you say? Florida is my favorite Sunshine State D1-A school? This is true, but...I don't really care for Urban Meyer. But I do fucks wit Percy Harvin. I want the Redskins to draft him a year early. Plus, I was advised that for my safety I should probably refrain from humming the theme to "Jaws"

So while I'm outside enjoying the Louisiana air and daiquiris, a lot of crazy stuff happened.
Illinois beat #5 (AP rankings) Wisconsin. It wasn't an upset because Vegas had the unranked (AP) Illini FAVORED to beat Wisconsin. Shouldn't this have been a wake up call/bulletin board fodder for the Badgers? They suck. I only had them ranked high because I believe in ranking undefeated teams higher than one loss teams, but I'm thinking eventually I'm going to reconsider. LSU rallied to beat the Gators...and I think something else happened... hmm...

what could it be...

oh yeah...

OH YEAH...THAT!!!

USC lost to STANFORD!

John David Booty is officially the Chris Rix of that program. I thought this before (hey...I smell like bbq smoke) I found out about the game, but maybe that was my psychic nature letting me know he threw one of his 4 picks. Its also about time I get my Heisman ballot tracking together but we'll wait till next week for that.

And now, the new Rankings

1. LSU
2. Cal
3. Boston College
4. South Florida
5. Ohio State
6. Oklahoma
7. South Carolina
8. Oregon
9. West Virginia
10. Cincinnati
11. Arizona State
12. Hawaii
13. USC
14. Florida
15. Virginia Tech
16. Illinois
17. Kentucky
18. Missouri
19. Kansas
20. Wisconsin
21. Florida State
22. Auburn
23. Texas
24. Maryland
25. Alabama

Monday, October 1, 2007

Dr Hak's Week 5 College Football Rankings

You know how some movie plots have the "everyone dies" ending? (The Departed)
Well, this was an "everyone loses" weekend, but I tried to impart in my college football preview for the year that this was a weak year as far as TEAMS go. Lots of talent but a ton of seniors left good teams last year and most of the highly ranked teams are lead by youngsters (Florida, Oklahoma).
What I didn't speak about what that this gives less prestigious programs a shot to sneak in there and grab some "out-of-nowhere" conference titles. Like Wake Forest last year. Down year for Miami, FSU and Va Tech, and the Demon Deacons come "out-of-nowhere" to win the ACC and hit the Orange Bowl.

Well the season isn't even halfway over but Kentucky, South Carolina and South Florida are threatening to be those teams this year. Not to mention Hawaii, which despite a horrendous schedule, could limp into the BCS with Colt Brennan's Heisman fame and a lot of BCS conference teams knocking each other off.

This is how wild of a season its been so far. I have very little confidence in the Top 5 of my rankings. In fact, I don't know if outside of LSU and USC, any of the week 5 Top TEN schools I have listed below will be there at the end of the year. But so far, they have earned it.

And now, to the new rankings

  1. LSU
  2. USC
  3. Cal
  4. Wisconsin
  5. South Florida
  6. Kentucky
  7. Ohio State
  8. Boston College
  9. West Virginia
  10. Oregon
  11. Florida
  12. Oklahoma
  13. South Carolina
  14. Rutgers
  15. Hawaii
  16. Texas
  17. Cincinnati
  18. Arizona State
  19. Georgia
  20. Virginia Tech
  21. Missouri
  22. Illinois
  23. Purdue
  24. Kansas State
  25. UCLA