After a far-too-close and way-too-tense OT victory against 2008 Homecoming spoiler Morgan State in Balitimore, FAMU returned to the FCS Football Rankings today at #23 (Coaches) and #24 (Media)
Media Rankings
I've done my own analysis of the Rattlers' chances of making the playoffs - provided we win our last 3 games against NC A&T, Hampton and BCC.
I'd say we have a 40% chance of making it in under the current rules (8 automatic qualifiers and 8 at-large bids) and need 4 - but preferably 5 specific teams out of this group...
Weber State
Eastern Washington
Delaware
McNeese State
Stephen F Austin
Northern Iowa
Holy Cross
Colgate
Lafayette
...to lose during the last 3 weeks of the season. Next year the field expands to 20 (why not 24 or 32??) teams with 10-conference champions automatically making it and 10 at-large bids. Under those rules we'd be much much closer to "IN".
Of the 8 at-large bids, 3 will likely go to CAA teams Villanova, New Hampshire and William & Mary, along with defending champion Richmond.
The Missouri Valley Conference will probably grab 2 at-large bids for Northern Iowa (probably) and the loser of the South Dakota State vs Southern Illinois game, which will decide their conference champion.
Elon and Appalachian State will play for the Southern Conference title soon, and the loser will also grab an at-large bid.
That's 6 at-large spots given out, and two left. A small possibility exists that New Hampshire and Northern Iowa will play themselves "out" with two losses.
With two spots left, FAMU needs "help". With 3 weeks left in the season, there is enough time for the necessary teams to lose and get out of the way, but also opportunities for the same teams to play their way to "lock" status.
Of the two remaining spots, the following teams from the following conference are in play
Big Sky
(Montana is ranked #2 and won the conference)
#19 Weber State - may not reach the minimum of 7 wins with two difficult home games to finish the schedule. If they do, the committee will consider that two of their losses came to FBS teams.
#21 Eastern Washington - recently won appeal of NCAA playoff ban.
Colonial
(The CAA has 4 of the top 8 teams. Richmond, Villanova, Wiliam & Mary, and New Hampshire all beat 1-A/FBS teams this year and none have more than 1 loss with 3 games left. Barring a collapse by W&M or NH, all 4 are in.)
#23 Delaware - will not have enough Division 1 victories to qualify unless they beat Navy and #4 Villanova, both on the road. The committee DID let 5 CAA teams in the field last year (when they should've put in Liberty over Maine).
Patriot League
(#13 Holy Cross is the conference front-runner)
#18 Colgate
#25 Lafayette - a victory over Colgate this weekend would set up a dramatic PL championship game with #13 Holy Cross on Nov 14th. Under that scenario, it is likely only the winner would make the playoffs. Should Colgate and Holy Cross both defeat Lafayette, however, both may be in.
Southland Conference
#12 McNeese State
#15 Stephen F Austin
A wild 4 or 5 way race for the title will continue through the end of the season. Depending on how it goes, one or both of these Southland teams could seek an at-large berth.
MEAC (1 team)
#24 FAMU - a 9-2 record with losses to #10 South Carolina State and "The U". Lack of schedule strength may be too much to overcome. Black schools are rarely given that much respect in FCS at-large discussion unless they are ranked in the top 10. FAMU will likely finish the season ranked between 16 and 20, with 2 or 3 teams ahead of them that aren't playoff eligible
FAMU's "best friend" - the University of Northern Arizona. A good team capable of beating Weber State on the road and Eastern Washington at home to end the season, eliminating two potential roadblocks.
Here's a short article about FAMU's revitalized football program under Coach Joe Taylor.
http://64.246.64.33/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/news/news.aspx?id=4263555
OK, all that being said, here's my PERCEPTION of the pecking order for the teams seeking an at-large bid under the extremely random and unlikely scenario that they all win out. Now, before you say "why should I care about your perception", you should know that I looked last week's FCS rankings, and was, within an hour, able to predict this week's rankings with 95% accuracy. I'd claim 100 percent, since I had the correct 25 teams, but #23, 24, and 25 were in a different order than the media voted...
Pecking Order Should They All Win Out
1*. #12 McNeese State - could narrowly edge out Delaware in the everyone-wins-out scenario given the general respect the Southland Conference gets and their road win at #7 Appalachain State. COULD get in with a loss @ Texas State anyway if App State beats Elon and rises to the Top 5 by season's end.
*2. #19 Weber State - has "quality losses" (moral victories?) and the last two games on the schedule would boost their stock. However, their record would be 7-4.
3. #23 Delaware - I mentioned they gave the CAA five spots last year right? Well if Delaware beats 1-A Navy and #4 Villanova it could definitely happen again. Last year's Maine/CAA 5th team over Liberty deal was partially enabled by the fact that Liberty doesn't come from a highly regarded conference, but McNeese St, Stephen F Austin, Eastern Washington and Weber State do.
4. #21 Eastern Washington - though I'm not sure how the selection committee feels about them being banned and then unbanned from the postseason. Winning at Northern Arizona to end the season would be impressive.
5a and 5b. Lafayette / Colgate - since they play, they both can't win out. I mentioned earlier the scenario in which both could lose. Otherwise, two teams from the Patroit League will have a good case for the playoffs.
6. Florida A&M - sadly, we need 4 or 5 teams to lose to get us to "IN" status. Luckily, this is college football and those things tend to happen. It would be a GREAT time for FAMU to start beating the snot out of MEAC also-rans and for LeRoy Vann to get back on ESPN with a record-breaking punt return TD.
7. Northern Arizona - a bad, bad loss to Sacramento State probably ended their hopes but beating Weber AND Eastern Washington along with their narrow OT loss to #2 Montana could help. Probably not enough to push them past a 9-2 FAMU or 10-1 Lafayette though.
8. Texas State - has a chance to win their conference, with quality opponents left to go. May be too late for an at-large bid though.
Final Notes
The possibility that Northern Iowa, currently #12, falls out of their "IN" spot does exist. They have a road game against conference opponent Illinois State to end the season. They are highly ranked based on their 16-17 loss at Iowa (#4 in the BCS rankings and leading the Big Ten as of now) and previous reputation but have no particular quality wins this season.
Summary - FAMU needs 5 teams to lose to be sure of entry to the playoffs. That being said, FAMU has a playoff history which leads to respect from the committee, as well as star players in LeRoy Vann and Curtis Pulley, which definitely helps as well.
We'll find out in 3 weeks!
Monday, November 2, 2009
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