Do The Wizards Need Gilbert Arenas?

The Washington Wizards have a bit of a problem.



Perhaps its one of those "good problems to have" but perhaps not. The problem isn't so much about right now, its about "the direction of the franchise".



For the last several years the Wizards' nucleus has been the All-Star trio known as "The Big Three". Gilbert Arenas, shoot-first point guard and blogger extrodinaire a.k.a. Agent Zero, Caron Butler - all around small forward a.k.a. Tough Juice, and Antwan Jamison - the team's veteran leader and rangy power forward.



Arenas, their "best" player, has been hurt 90% of this season, yet they are above .500 and comfortably in the playoff hunt. With a late season surge they could, in theory, end up in the 4 spot and host a first round playoff series against the hated Cavaliers or the Raptors. Had it not been for Caron Butler's 15 game layoff with a hip flexor injury, they might already be in that position. One weekend in the fall, they swept a 2 game home-and-home with the mighty Boston Celtics, who had smashed the Bullets (not a slip) to open the season, despite Arenas guaranteeing victory. All of this (and more which I will get into later) leads to the question...



Do the Wizards Need Gilbert Arenas?



Add to all of that the fact that the team has played decent, but inconsistent, ball without Caron Butler, who might be the most important player on the team. This is not a slight to Jamison, who has held it together over the last 2 seasons while Arenas and Butler have become injury prone, solidifying his position as team captain; but Caron's ability to guard SFs and big 2-guards on the perimeter adds to his value to the team in an Eastern Conference with the overrated LeBron James, Dwayne Wade, Ray Allen, etc.



As I type this, I don't know how I feel about moving on without Arenas...so I'll break down the issues systematically.



First up...



How did this come up?



Clearly, playing well without your top dog isn't enough of a reason to start this discussion. The "issue" is that Gilbert is up for a new contract...a max contract perhaps, and if the Wizards won't pay him, someone will. It'll be a bigger issue is Arenas comes back in the next few weeks and helps the squad to a deep playoff run. The Eastern Conference finals are possible, especially if they don't draw Detroit in the first or 2nd round. I didn't say it was likely though. This is about the Future of the Franchise. This year, any deep playoff run would be a nice surprise.



But when your team holds it together, a few random blowouts aside, without 1 and a half of their best players...you get to analyzing and looking at the situation.



The Wizards ownership has not shown a willingness to go over the soft-limit of the NBA salary cap and pay the dollar-for-dollar luxury tax that comes with exceeding it. However, with Antwan Jamison up for a new contract as well, that may not be avoidable. Can the Wizards afford to pay them both $20 Million? Perhaps, but then Caron will want his money too. And you DO have to have other players on your team.



So now, we must evaluate the Wizards options and why they make sense...



Option #1 - Re-sign Arenas to a Max deal, or match the best offer he can get in free agency.



PRO: You keep the fans happy and you ensure the Wizards are in the Top 5 of the Eastern Conference for the next 3-to-5 years...as long as their young big men continue to develop. You also have a deep, deep team with a lot of different lineups for a very good coach named Eddie Jordan to mix and match.

CON: Money...and....Gilbert Arenas may or may not return to form from his knee injury...and...we don't know if Arenas is willing to play the tough Defense (with a capital D) that the Wizards have played this year, now that they don't have the ability to score 120 a game.

Option #2 - Sign and Trade Arenas

PRO: You can add a strong player who compliments the current line up and/or pick up draft picks and run with Butler and Jamison and Nick Young as your main scorers. If they can keep Caron from getting hurt every year and Andray Blatche grows into his talent...you've got a good team.

CON: This strategy is risky because if it doesn't work, you've not only lost games and taken a step back as a franchise, you've gotten rid of the city's most popular athlete in years. Plus, you are relying on Nick Young and Olesky Pecherov to develop as scorers to replace Arenas' points...because Roger Mason isn't a long term option and Deshawn Stevenson will want more money too.

Option 3 - let him walk

Pro:...I don't see any pro's here. Except...I'm not sure what Arenas' locker room image is. I don't think he helps this team's chemistry. He likes to play and joke around, and he's close with rookie Nick Young, who's like his little brother. But Jamison is the leader of the team. Arenas is like 26, so perhaps he just isn't there yet, but he's out shooting paintball with the rookies (but not the other teammates) which leads me to think him not being around to keep the locker room "loose" also keeps the locker room serious and focused. That defense thing is also an issue. We can't really determine if they should keep him until we know if he's going to play that D the Wizards have been putting out there this year. He's expressed in the past his disinterest with defending, but perhaps watching how the team has done it without him has helped him to see the importance of developing that part of his game.

CON: You get nothing in return and you alienate your fan base.


Conclusion - ???

Its like this. Everytime the Wizards win a game against Boston, Cleveland or Detroit without Gil, I think they don't need him...Then they turn around and lose to Atlanta or Charlotte right away, or get blown out by 20 by Houston or Portland after beating New Orleans and I have NO IDEA what that means.

Perhaps it means that the team is too thin roster wise to give it 100% every game, and the live body they'd be trading Arenas to pick up would help that, along with a healthy Etan Thomas (who while I respect for his off-court activities, I'm not sure him and Eddie Jordan and Brendan Haywood can co-exist) - so then they'd have more energy on a night to night basis = consistency.

Or it could mean that they really need Gilbert's points and his 30 a game makes up for his lack of defense.

The true answer won't be known for some time. I'm currently ok with keeping or letting Arenas go. If I had my preference, I'd say re-sign him, but be ready to ship him out if he refuses to play that Defense we like now. Sadly, Abe Pollin is cheap and the whole luxury tax thing might scare him from keeping his best roster in 10 years together... Don't get me started on how we had Rasheed Wallace, Chris Webber, Juwon Howard and Rod Strickland and they blew that team up...ugh....you know what...that's the tie-breaker. Last time they had a squad they killed it for no good reason - so Gilbert needs to stay. His trade value won't decline unless his knee turns out to be a career defining injury.

I will say, that I am looking forward to the Wizards bring him off the bench for the last 6 games of the regular season and the Eastern Conference playoffs. I think that's an AMAZINGLY positive thing when they can throw him out there with Nick Young, Pecherov, Blatche and Songalia...they can put points up with that group and spell the starters. That'll be fun. The Cavs/Pistons/Magic - whoever...are in trouble.

Go Wizards!

*************UPDATE**************

Since I posted this, Gilbert has gone on record to the media and said he'd take a "pay cut" to allow the Wizards enough flexibility to re-sign Antwan Jamison and himself to keep the team together...if he wasn't the most beloved DC athlete before that, he certainly is if he's serious. He also mentioned that whatever good team he went to he'd have to take a pay cut so whats the difference taking one here in DC...SO - he's also open to leaving and has thought about it, looked at the $ situation and decided he's not going to some small market sorry team with cap room just to get cash. See what happens when that endorsement money starts coming in?