The Road to Shogun vs Spider Silva

As of today, the biggest fight possible in the UFC is new Lightheavyweight Champ & Pride Legend Shogun Rua vs Middleweight Kingpin Anderson "The Spider" Silva. It is the only fight my new-to-MMA-fan friends have asked me about in the last two days, and the fantasy title fight with the most "buzz".

Ironically, Shogun vs Spider may have been more likely with a Shogun loss at UFC 113.

Anderson Silva has repeatedly stated that the 205-lb belt "belongs to Lyoto", even before The Dragon had been granted his title shot in May of last year. Given their friendship and loyalty, it is very possible Anderson will refuse to fight Shogun for the belt anytime soon - under the assumption that Lyoto will return to his winning ways and earn another title shot within 2 or 3 fights.

So how do we get to a Rua-Silva mega-fight?

The best bet would be for Lyoto to lose again within his next three fights and drop him clear out of title contention.

But who would beat him?

Despite getting clipped on the temple by (arguably) the best 205lber of all time, Machida is unquestionably the #2 or #1b fighter in the division. Some fans will recall one reason for the "delay" in Lyoto getting his title shot to start with was the fact that no one in the Top 10 would actually accept a fight with him. Rampage ducked him. Griffin ducked him even after beating Shogun in 2007. Only then-undefeated Thiago Silva had enough balls (or self-belief) to take the challenge and even that fight was delayed several months after Thiago injured his back. Machida's team basically had to wait, or risk the ability to face a fighter of any consequence.

Even with all of the power UFC matchmaker Joe Silva and Dana White weild, it is only when an avoided fighter such as Machida is the #1 contender or champion that they can really "force" Top 10 guys to fight him. This may explain why certain top fighters - i.e. Rampage, Spider Silva, Big Nog - who enter the organization receive a title shot after their first big win. It also explains why Machida didn't face any of the traditional big names in the 205 lb division you would assume one has to beat to get a title shot.

All of that to say - the few fighters not named Rua who might actually stand a chance to beat Machida won't bother taking that chance...so he won't be losing anytime soon. Rich Franklin would be the biggest name that might want a piece and he's previously been quoted as not wanting the fight on account of Lyoto's "boring" style (the same style Machida used to TKO Franklin). Lyoto will continue to beat Top 20 guys like Luis Arther Cane, Keith Jardine and Matt Hamill until he's back as the clear #1 contender sometime in late 2011 or early 2012.

If Dana White sticks to his recent statement that Spider Silva will need to beat both Chael Sonnen in August and then Vitor Belfort (let's say in December on the year-end show) to be allowed to move to 205 and vacate his Middleweight title, that would put the ETA for Anderson's arrival in the Lightheavyweight division at April of 2011. In the mean time, Shogun would need to beat the winner of the main event at UFC 114:Black on Black Crime, and then Randy "The Natural" Couture by year's end.

By then, Lyoto will be back in the win column, re-activating his claim to the throne and causing Anderson to say "it's still Lyoto's belt" through their (heel?) manager Ed Soares.


So how do we really get to a Rua-A.Silva mega-fight?


Timing will play a large role. The time it takes for Lyoto to earn his title next shot could run parallel to Silva's run through the division. Anderson fighting for the 205 lb belt in May of 2011 (or September 2011 if Forrest Griffin is protected for a year and given a title shot/rematch with Shogun) comes with the distinct possibility that were he to win, the clear #1 contender might be Lyoto Machida. Short of a random split within the House of Soares or some WWE storyline-style professional jealousy, that fight isn't ever happening.

Thus, the best chance for Silva-Shogun to happen is if Anderson is truly serious about eventually moving up to heavyweight to challenge Brock Lesnar and is willing to campaign at Heavyweight for the remaining fights on his contract and then retire.

If that were true, Dana could "convince" him (with $, of course) to take the fight with Shogun, and set up conditions to ensure he wouldn't be in conflict with Lyoto's path to another title shot in the event he won the belt. The deal could involve Spider defending the 205 lb belt no more than twice (options include Jon Jones, Rampage, and maybe a Shogun re-match) and then vacating to move up to Heavyweight and challenging Brock or whoever the champ is at the time. No conditions would be needed if Shogun were to defeat The Spider.

Of course, there are still caveats with this scenario.

1. This is all blown up if Lil' Nog keeps knocking guys out and Silva-n-Soares say the belt belongs to him too.

2. Having Silva as champ while Lyoto returns to prominence would only re-ignite Dana's obsession with making teammates fight.

3. Silva vacating the belt right as Lyoto (or anyone else) gets ready to earn another title shot would reduce the legitimacy of the new champion's claim to the throne. I don't think Anderson cares about that going down in the middleweight division, nor should he. But would he want to hurt the perception of his friend? Would Soares want that cloud hanging over the title reign of one of his clients? That will probably be something Team Soares takes into heavy consideration when the hype for Shogun-Spider picks up at the end of this year.